Solar demand in major markets in Europe continues to grow steadily as governments lower incentives. In the first quarter of 2013, total new solar installations in Germany, Italy, and the UK reached 2GW, accounting for 30% of global new installations. The combined first-quarter new installations in emerging solar markets such as the US, Japan, and China also accounted for 30%, showing strong growth due to lucrative incentive policies.

Digitimes Research believes demand from emerging solar markets will grow continuously in the second quarter. Meanwhile, as some capacities have been eliminated, oversupply is likely to ease. Digitimes Research noted that solar product prices are likely to rebound slowly and new installations from emerging solar markets are likely to surpass new installations in major solar markets in Europe.

The trade war in the solar market is likely to continue as the EU is predicted to announce preliminary results of its anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigation against China-based firms in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the China government has been aggressive in expanding domestic solar demand, helping firms to reduce their reliance on Europe and the US. To weather the storm, China-based firms have been shifting focus to other emerging solar markets. In addition, to avoid being taxed in Europe, some China-based firms have been searching for manufacturing locations outside of China. However, if the trade war between Europe and China continues, it will cause price fluctuations and this would not be beneficial to the development of solar markets for both sides.